大摩前外匯大師預言2024年或出現通縮?建議轉買2種貨幣投資

文: 梁穎心
2022.11.18

提出「美元微笑理論」、摩根士丹利前外匯大師Stephen Jen接受訪問時稱,美國通脹已經見頂,認為目前是拋售美元的時機。直言「美元被嚴重高估,若通脹不再大幅走高,美元就不可能進一步上漲。做空美元是明年最好的交易之一」。

目前經營對沖基金的Stephen Jen接受彭博訪問時表示,目前美元兌十大工業國的貨幣平均被高估約20%,並指「美元的下跌不會只是短期回調,而是長期趨勢的開始」。他認為,到明年這個時候,美國通脹率可能跌破4%,不排除2024年將出現通縮。

他建議投資者賣美元,轉買歐元和日圓,認為歐元在未來12個月裡可從目前約1.03水平突破1.10,而日圓目前更被低估近50%,美元兌日圓可能從140水平跌至125。

Jen在2001年提出「美元微笑理論」,理論分成3個部分,第一部分是全球經濟衰退,避險資金對美國國債需求而推升美元。第二部分是美國經濟相對其他市場偏弱,但未衰退,聯儲局有減息傾向,資金流出美國追求更高收益,美元走弱。第三部分三是美國經濟轉強,聯儲局有加息傾向,資金流入美國,美元升值,三點連起來即成笑臉。

來源:HKET

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